Polymarket odds for US-Iran ceasefire by Aug 31 rise to 58.5%

Ted Hisokawa
Jul 20, 2026 12:19

Overnight, a report said U.S. strikes hit two Iranian provinces, killing one and injuring several, adding fresh escalation to the timeline traders are tracking.

Polymarket odds for US-Iran ceasefire by Aug 31 rise to 58.5%

Polymarket Ceasefire Ladder Reprices After Reports of Overnight U.S. Strikes in Iran

Polymarket traders pushed the implied odds of an “effective US x Iran ceasefire by August 31” up to 58.5% on $1,488,626 in volume, a 5.0-point move higher. The repricing follows headlines about overnight U.S. strikes in Iran, and this ladder market shows how timing expectations shift across multiple deadlines.

Key Takeaways

Market-implied favorite is “Effective ceasefire by August 31” at 58.5% (No 41.5%).After reports of overnight U.S. strikes in Iran, the ladder repriced toward a later ceasefire window rather than near-term deadlines.Contract resolves by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC; the leading line is up 5.0 points over both 24h and 7d.

A report said overnight U.S. strikes hit two provinces in Iran, leaving one person dead and several others wounded. The headline framed the incident as a fresh escalation, which serves as the immediate catalyst traders are mapping into ceasefire timing odds.

Odds Snapshot: $1.49M Volume Puts “Ceasefire by Aug 31” at 58.5% vs Aug 14 at 43.0% and Jul 31 at 31.5%

This is a price-ladder (deadline ladder) market: each strike is a separate “ceasefire by X date?” contract, so the label is a cutoff, not a settlement price or a single yes/no event. The August 31 line leads at Yes 58.5% / No 41.5%, while nearer deadlines trade much lower—August 14 sits at Yes 43.0% / No 57.0% and July 31 at Yes 31.5% / No 68.5%, with the very near July 18 at Yes 0.3% / No 99.7%. The 24-hour and 7-day change are both +5.0 points with “strong” momentum and “strengthening” consensus, implying traders are converging on a ceasefire scenario but discounting a fast turnaround within days. At $1.49M in volume, the market is actively updating, and the step-down from 58.5% (Aug 31) to 43.0% (Aug 14) quantifies how much probability traders assign specifically to a two-week pause versus a later de-escalation window. The resolution timestamp (2026-08-31 23:59 UTC) makes the final strike the key settlement boundary, while earlier strikes function as tradable estimates of timing rather than a single binary outcome.

Watch whether odds lift on the earlier rungs (July 24, July 31, August 14) or stay concentrated on August 31; that split is the cleanest read on whether traders are shifting from “eventually” to “soon” ahead of the 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC resolution.

What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Earlier Deadline Rungs (Jul 24/Jul 31/Aug 14) vs the Aug 31 Anchor Contract

Zooming out from the ceasefire timing ladder, traders are also benchmarking the knock-on scenarios that can reprice the whole complex across Polymarket. Big attention is on 97.75% No in “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” ($18,719,328 volume, +39.75pp), 78.5% No in “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” ($45,375,440, +10.0pp), and 42.0% leading “August 31” in “Iran full airspace closure by…?” ($4,803,643, +3.0pp). Taken together, these side contracts act as adjacent gauges for how traders are weighing shipping normalization, escalation risk, and operational constraints alongside the headline ceasefire timeline.

Odds Trend

WindowChange (pp)24h+5.07d+5.0
Implied odds (last 48h)2550Odds %August 31August 14July 31July 24

By the Numbers

Platform: PolymarketMarket: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by…? (2 week pause)Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.Resolution window: Aug 31, 2026 (UTC)Status: Active (open for trading)Volume: ~$1,488,626

Top strike rungs

StrikeYesNoAugust 3158.5%41.5%August 1443.0%57.0%July 3131.5%68.5%July 2421.0%79.0%

+1 more strikes not shown

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